T’is the Season to be Jolly

With reports that the few weeks before Christmas can, in normal times, equate to a quarter of pubs’ yearly profits, this is an important time of the year for pubs in Great Britain.

However, the impact of the pandemic and the cost of living crisis has proved to be a challenge for some pubs, causing many to close.

Research by CDRC’s Dr Stephen Clark explores longer term trends in pub numbers and how they vary by types of neighbourhood.  

So with Christmas coming and revellers heading to their local pub for festive fun, we’re revisiting Stephen’s blog on how some of these locals could be affected by recent trends in the number of British pubs.

The Bull – Ambridge

We start with perhaps what is our oldest pub – built in the 16^th century – “The Bull” which can be found in the sleepy rural hamlet of Ambridge, in the English Midlands.

In locations like this, many pubs have unfortunately closed their doors, with nearly one in four of these ‘Prospering countryside life’ neighbourhoods witnessing a pub closure since mid-2014.

Despite this trend, not all is gloomy for such pubs. Some have garnered recognition as ‘assets of community value’ and have been successfully rescued, now operated by the local community.

The Woolpack – Emmerdale

“The Woolpack” is located in the village of Emmerdale on the fringes of the Leeds and Bradford conurbation in Yorkshire.

This pub is in a ‘Rural traits’ neighbourhood and whilst these types of neighbourhood have experienced some reductions in the number of pubs, it is to a lesser extent than some other rural neighbourhoods.

Here nearly one in five of these neighbourhoods show a reduction, by one pub on average. A potential solution to safeguarding some of these pubs involves a shift towards a greater emphasis on food, transforming into a gastro-pub. Through their convenient location, they can attract customers from nearby towns and cities to visit, thereby contributing to their sustainability.

The Vic – Walford

We now transition to a London pub known as “The Queen Victoria,” affectionately referred to locally as “The Old Vic.” Situated in the London borough of Walford in East London, this pub, constructed in 1860, has witnessed significant changes in its neighbourhood over the past 150 years.

Presently, the area falls into the category of an ‘Urban cultural mix’ neighbourhood, characterised by a diverse range of generations, ethnicities, and employment opportunities within the community.

To some extent, this area is poised for gentrification, and during the eight-year period, the number of pubs has remained relatively stable, showing a slight, albeit insignificant, reduction.

The Rovers Return – Weatherfield

Remaining in an urban setting, we now journey north to “The Rovers Return,” a traditional working-class pub nestled among cobbled streets in the inner-city suburb of Weatherfield, Manchester.

Image courtesy of Ian Middleton Duff – Flikr

Contrary to expectations, pubs situated in such ‘Hampered neighbourhoods’ actually experienced an increase in their numbers, with nearly one in eight such neighbourhoods displaying a rise in the number of pubs.

This growth occurred despite challenges posed by competition from more affordable supermarket and corner shop drinks, as well as the surge in in-home entertainment options.

It is heartening to consider that people in these communities still recognise the pub as a cherished third space, providing a venue to meet with friends, neighbours, and work colleagues.

The Dog in the Pond – Hollyoaks

The final pub is the most contemporary in our list, the “Dog in the Pond” located in the affluent city of Chester, just south of Liverpool.

During the 1990’s and early 2000’s this pub catered to an adolescent and young adult cliental, but more recently this has broadened out to serve diverse age groups. However, it is still largely a ‘Cosmopolitan student neighbourhood’ and these types of neighbourhood have seen the greatest increase in the number of pubs, with one in four showing an increase in the number of pubs.

With young people now having access to many ways to socialise via social media and such like, it is reassuring that many still value the face to face interactions and relaxed atmosphere that pubs and bars can offer.

Final thoughts

What we observe here is a varied scenario for the British pub. Numerous pubs in rural settings have encountered substantial challenges to remain open, yet some have been rescued through local community initiatives.

On the other hand, pubs and bars in urban settings, especially in town and city centres, have experienced more favourable outcomes, capitalising on gentrification and improved transportation options. With increasing numbers, these urban locales can offer a diverse range of leisure and entertainment options to visitors.

Find out more

Find out more about the recent trends in the number of British pubs and how these vary by neighbourhood type in Stephen’s paper in The Geographical Journal.

Dr Stephen Clark is a Research Fellow at the Consumer Data Research Centre at the University of Leeds. In addition to Stephen’s work on trends in pub numbers he has also recently been exploring neighbourhood characteristics associated with retail bank branch closures.

Making healthy and sustainable choices easier for consumers

The Nutrition and Lifestyle Analytics team were Highly Commended in the Market Research Society’s President’s Medal for their collaborative work with IGD, Asda and Sainsbury’s which aims to make healthy and sustainable choices easier for consumers.

Congratulations to the Nutrition and Lifestyle Analytics team. We’re looking forward to seeing what comes next, they are currently working Asda, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco to investigate the impact of HFSS legislation, results to be shared in 2025.

Project team members: Prof Michelle Morris, Dr Vicki Jenneson, Dr Stephen Clark, Dr Fran Pontin, Robyn Naisbitt, Dr Emily Ennis and colleagues from IGD, Asda and Sainsbury’s.

Highlighting food insecurity risk across the UK

Our Priority Places for Food team won the University of Leeds Mature Economic Impact Award for the development of the Priority Places for Food Index (PPFI).

PPFI, developed in collaboration with Which?, was launched in 2022 to identify neighbourhoods that are most vulnerable to increases in the cost of living and which are likely to be food insecure. The tool provides localised insights into factors leading to food insecurity across every UK neighbourhood.

To date the research has informed suitable locations for new supermarkets, evidenced the need for budget-friendly options in convenience stores, supported local policy and charity interventions and guided surplus food redistribution.

Project team members: Professor Michelle Morris, Dr Fran Pontin, Dr Rachel Oldroyd, Robyn Naisbitt , Dr Emily Ennis (formerly CRDC), Alex Hambley (formerly CRDC), Peter Baudains (formerly CRDC), Ahmed Ammash (Leeds Institute of Data Analytics) and Abdelrahman Ibrahim (Leeds Institute of Data Analytics)

Fostering high value working cultures within research

Dr Francesca Pontin was Highly Commended in the Hidden Role Award at the recent Hidden REF Competition.

The hidden REF is a campaign to recognise all research outputs and every role that makes research possible.

Fran was recognised for her role in fostering high value working cultures within research.

Congratulations to Fran!

We’re delighted to share the news that teams from both CDRC Leeds and CDRC ULO will lead new Smart Data Research UK (SDR UK) data services.

The Geographic Data Service (GeoDS), led by Prof Paul Longley, University College London and Prof Alex Singleton, University of Liverpool, will integrate a wide range of data sources to generate new insights into equitable and sustainable growth – bringing focus to geographic disparities, barriers to opportunity and the circumstances of vulnerable populations.

The Healthy and Sustainable Places Data Service (HASP), led by Led by Prof Nik Lomax, Prof Michelle Morris, Prof Ed Manley, and Prof Mark Birkin at the University of Leeds, will help researchers to assess persistent and pressing challenges in health and sustainability, and discover new ways to understand local economies, health, lifestyles, and transportation patterns.

Over the next six months we will begin working towards the transition of the CDRC data service to GeoDS and HASP, so will have lots of exciting updates for you about our progress over the coming months. The CDRC data service will remain operational during this transition period.

Smart Data Research UK (SDR UK) today announced an investment of £22 million in new data services, enabling researchers across the UK to access new forms of smart data.

How did those at high risk of Food Insecurity vote? by Dr Fran Pontin, Senior Research Data Scientist

We aggregated the neighbourhoods (lower layer super output areas) in England and Wales to their 2024 constituency and calculated the median PPFI decile for each constituency. We also calculated the median deciles for each of the seven domains that makes up PPFI:

• Proximity to supermarket retail facilities
• Accessibility to supermarket retail facilities
• Access to online deliveries
• Proximity to non-supermarket food provision
• Socio-demographic barriers
• Need for family food support
• Fuel Poverty

Explore the full PPFI Index here.

What happened in the last election?

Votes for Labour in the 2019 election map fairly well onto the Priority Places for Food Index, where we identify the band of labour voters in the North West, North East, Yorkshire & the Humber and the West Midlands mapping onto Priority Places for Food Insecurity Support . However, there are constituencies where this pattern does not hold true, with more rural and coastal Priority Places in the South East and East of England voting Conservative in the last election. London also bucks the trend by being a Labour strong hold in 2019, which generally has fewer Priority Places (this is because London generally has better food access and performs better in the need for Family Food Support domain).

2024 voting behaviour in the constituencies most vulnerable to food Insecurity?

The Priority Places for Food Index considers both physical access to places where food can be purchased as well as the socio-demographic barriers to being able to buy food. The domains we typically associate with being more vulnerable to the impacts of the cost-of-living crisis, the socio-demographic barriers, fuel poverty and need for family support domains map most closely onto both the previous 2019 Labour voting patterns and where Labour have won seats this election.

One of the big stories of the election has been the swing of seats from conservative to labour. Looking at those swing seats we can see the constituencies that have swung tend to be at higher risk of food insecurity, when compared to the constituencies that have maintained a conservative hold. Suggesting that food insecurity and parallel concerns around the cost-of-living crisis were a major factor in voting choice in the 2024 election.

Mapping the changes in seats we see a trend that constituencies where Labour have won seats from the Conservatives typically tend to be constituencies at higher risk of Food Insecurity. These high-risk swing seats including more rural and costal areas in the South East, constituencies in Cornwall in the South West and West Midlands. On average Conservative voting constituencies tend to be at lower risk of Food Insecurity.

Whilst, where Reform UK have won previously Conservative seats also tend to be constituencies at higher risk of Food Insecurity, suggesting Food Insecurity and the cost of living may be a factor in the swing to Reform UK votes, despite the fact the manifesto ‘does not contain many measures that would ease food insecurity’.  Interestingly, the seats the Liberal Democrats have won from the Conservatives tend to be in areas at lower risk of Food Insecurity despite, as highlighted by the Food Foundation, policies to tackle Food Insecurity outlined in the Liberal Democrat Manifesto.

Individual voting decision is a very complex and personal decision, whilst Food Insecurity seems a strong predictor of a Labour vote, we will never know the full role to which policies to address Food Insecurity and the wider cost-of-living crisis have played in the electoral outcome.

Data Source and Thanks

Election data were taken from the UK Election Data Vault and the House of Commons General Election Results. With thanks to Alasdair Rae at Automatic Knowledge for the ‘Hex’ constituency maps.

Dr Francesca Pontin

Senior Research Data Scientist, Consumer Data Research Centre

Fran is a Senior Research Data Scientist at the CDRC Leeds, her research interests focus on characterising and reducing spatial health inequalities utilising secondary ‘smart’ data analysis and the development of open data products to improve the use of data in informing policy decisions.

The problem

As part of the National Health Service (NHS) residents in England have the right to visit a dentist for twice yearly check-ups and treatment. However access to this care is proving to be increasingly difficult.

The mainstream media regularly contains stories of individuals who are unable to get an appointment, have to make visits to A&E departments, travel 100’s of miles to find a dentist, carry out DIY treatments, or return to war zones for dental treatment.

Alternative provision is available in the private sector but this is usually many times more expensive than NHS care.

This is a bad situation because poor dental health can have both physical and psychological impacts on people’s quality of life and without check-ups opportunities to detect more serious illness, e.g. mouth cancer, are lost.

How is NHS dentistry provided in England?

Within England a dentist can agree to work to an NHS contract.

If they do then they will be contracted to deliver a set number of Units of Dental Activity (UDA) throughout the year and paid an amount of money per UDA by the government.

All NHS care are allocated to one of three bands and there is a set separate fee for each band, payable by the patient.

The patient pays the same irrespective of the number of teeth treated and only pays the highest fee appropriate, so an examination followed by some form of band 2 treatment costs just the band 2 fee, £73.50.

Looking at the population, in 2023-2023 there was the equivalent of 1.6 contracted UDAs per person available, which is less than is required to carry out twice yearly check-ups and does not allow any capacity for treatments.

Given this heightened concern over NHS care, policy initiatives have been proposed by various political parties, including the establishment of new dental clinics, extra provision at existing clinics or requiring newly qualified dentists to work in the NHS sector for six years.

It is at this point that my research becomes relevant. It answers the questions as to where is the NHS provision currently poor?; and what will be the overall impact of adding extra NHS capacity in certain communities?

This is done by using a measure of accessibility.

An accessibility index measure should have the features that it should increase as:

• the number of supply locations or care capacity increases
• there is a lower amount of demand and competition
• there is a reduction in the distance between patients and practices

An additional requirement is that there should be no detriment in dental care accessibility by the type of community.

In this study the demand for NHS dentistry is the 2021 Census population in the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) (each has a population of about 1,600), the supply of NHS dentistry is the number of UDAs contracted to the practice, and the distance is the travel time by car between the LSOA population weighted centroid and the practice location postcode.

The calculations are made using the Modified Huff Variable 3 Stage Floating Catchment Area (MHV3SFA) approach.

This index of accessibility incorporates all the features that are highlighted above. In the calculations, an area with better accessibility to NHS care (more practices; little local competition for the care; or being close by) will have a higher index than one with poorer access (fewer practices; high local demand for care; or long travel times).

The details of this calculation can be found in the accompanying article.

Dental deserts

The figure below maps the accessibility index for the LSOAs in England. The areas with better accessibility and a higher index are in lighter shades, the areas with poorer accessibility are in darker shades. Additionally the 1% of LSOAs with the lowest accessibility are highlighted with a blue diamond and could be considered ‘dental deserts’. It is clear from this figure that urban areas have generally better accessibility to NHS dental care than the rural locations.

This figure identifies clusters of LSOAs that could be said to form dental deserts. Two are located in the East of England, in the Fenland and Mid Suffolk, others in the South Midlands and along the Welsh border, and finally in the South West.

If we zoom into the situation in the Fenlands as shown in Figure 2, we see some interesting features. Although the town of Wisbech in the centre of the figure has two dental practices, they are only contracted to provide 36,000 UDAs as part of their NHS contract. This means that some very close by neighbourhoods have a standard level of accessibility (the yellow diamonds), but others, still close by and some at a distance, have very poor accessibility.

The towns of Wisbech or March would be a top priority for extra NHS dental capacity. The MHV3SFA calculations could then be repeated with this extra capacity, and its impact on the accessibility for these LSOA could be evaluated.

In the article a similar case study is presented for the St Pauls community in Bristol. Also the article profiles accessibility by various measure of deprivation and rurality. The more deprived and urban neighbourhoods have better accessibility than affluent and rural communities.

The level of provision of NHS dentistry is a known problem. But the problem is spatially variable. There are some locations lucky to have modest provision whilst others could be considered deserts. If this situation is to change it is important that any extra capacity for care is targeted in the right locations – where it is needed. This accompanying article identifies around 10 clusters for dental deserts which should be a top priority for investment by any new government.

Further Information

Read the paper in full: Spatial Disparities in Access to NHS Dentistry: A Neighbourhood-Level Analysis in England

Dr Clark has also had a companion piece published in the British Dental Journal on the recent trends in availability of NHS dental care and how this varies by the characteristics of the neighbourhood.  

Dr Stephen Clark is a Research Fellow at the Consumer Data Research Centre at the University of Leeds. In addition to Stephen’s work on the spatial variations in NHS Dental Provision he has also  been exploring neighbourhood characteristics associated with retail bank branch closures and trends in the number of British pubs and how these vary by neighbourhood type .

Researchers from the Consumer Data Research Centre have been working in partnership with Good Food Oxfordshire (GFO) to investigate the spatial association between food insecurity risk and health outcomes in Oxfordshire.

Food insecurity is a growing concern in the UK and one that around 9 million adults suffered from last June (2023).

Food insecurity, which could lead to both obesity and malnutrition, is also a major driver of health inequalities and a risk factor for severe health outcomes (diabetes, hypertension, stroke, heart disease, and several cancers).

The purpose of this project was to produce data driven resources to empower Good Food Oxfordshire (GFO) to support and promote a healthy, sustainable, and fair food system in areas where its absence is exhausting NHS resources the most.

“The Priority Places for Food Index in general, and this research in particular, are really useful for us in help setting priorities and metrics for the Oxfordshire Food Strategy, which has local plans for each District. PPFI is a key metric, and the dashboard provides an easy-to-access, easy-to-explain visualisation for discussion with expert and non-expert alike.”

Fiona Steel, Manager, Good Food Oxfordshire

The data

This project combined qualitative insights from Good Food Oxfordshire (GFO), with quantitative data on food insecurity risk and various health outcomes to pinpoint areas where supporting the food system could most reduce health inequalities. 

Visualising the data

One of the outputs of this project was a Power BI dashboard – an accessible, intuitive, and responsive tool that empowers policy- and decision-makers to identify Oxfordshire areas where food insecurity could aggravate health inequalities.

You can find further detail on the data and methods in the full case study: Does food insecurity lead to greater health inequalities in Oxfordshire?

Using insights to target support

Policymakers in GFO’s network will use the dashboard to help make strategic decisions on where to focus their efforts to best support the food system.  The dashboard enables them to prioritise specific levers (i.e., addressing the most salient food insecurity risk factors) for each area, to improve health outcomes and reduce the prevalence of specific health conditions.

• Tackling income deprivation in Blackbird Leys and Greater Leys (among the 20% most deprived areas in England) could significantly reduce the prevalence of child obesity (by 0.7% at the reception year and 1.8% at year six) and Type 2 diabetes (by 1.6-1.7%), with each decile shift in the socio-demographic barriers PPFI dimension.
  
  
• Initiatives to make energy more accessible, affordable, and efficient for the population in Barton, Churchill, and Sandhills (whose areas are among the 20% most deprived in England) could significantly reduce child obesity at the reception year (by up to 0.9%) and year six (by up to 1.7%), with each decile shift in the fuel poverty PPFI dimension.
  
  
• The reinforcement of family food support schemes in Churchill, Iffley, Littlemore, and Rosehill (whose areas are among the 20% most deprived in England) is expected to reduce the prevalence of child obesity (by 1.8% at the reception year and 3.6% at year six) and diabetes (to a lesser extent—by 0.3-0.4%).

Further information

• Read the full case study: Does food insecurity lead to greater health inequalities in Oxfordshire?

• Find out more about Good Food Oxfordshire

• Explore the Priority Places for Food Index
  
• The CDRC funded this project as part of our ongoing commitment to the LIDA Data Scientist Development Programme.

Research Team

Ahmad Ammash, Data Scientist, Leeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds

Dr Francesca Pontin, Senior Research Data Scientist, Consumer Data Research Centre, University of Leeds

Dr Emily Ennis, Research Impact Manager, Consumer Data Research Centre, University of Leeds

Alexander Hambley, Research Software Engineer, Consumer Data Research Centre, University of Leeds

Fiona Steel, Manager, Good Food Oxfordshire

Stuart Newstead, Director, Good Food Oxfordshire

Poor diet is a leading cause of death in the United Kingdom and around the world.

In this webinar Professor Michelle Morris discusses how methods to collect quality dietary information at scale for population research are time consuming, expensive and biased.

Novel data sources, such as supermarket sales transactions and loyalty card data, offer the potential to overcome these challenges and better understand population dietary patterns.

Michelle shares examples of how these data can be used to better understand population level dietary patterns, how these compare with national recommendations, how they vary by sociodemographic characteristics and what we can do to change them.

Hear Rachel Oldroyd discussing how a project team from the University of Leeds, in collaboration with The Food Foundation , are using our Priority Places for Food Index to help improve understanding of how to scale up or replicate place-based, community-led food initiatives.

Since 1 October 2022, new legislation for England restricts the placement of some food and drink products High in Fat, Sugar and Salt (HFSS). 

Products such as confectionery can no longer be placed at store entrances, ends of aisles, or at the checkout in large retail stores and their online equivalents.

The introduction of the legislation prompted the food industry to implement significant changes, including store layout changes by retailers and product reformulation efforts by manufacturers. 

Understanding the impact of HFSS Legislation

Eighteen months on from the legislation’s implementation, a team of researchers led by Professor Michelle Morris, and supported by IGD, will be evaluating the impact of this legislation.

The team are working with ASDA, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco, who collectively represent 65%* of supermarket sales, to understand the impact of the HFSS legislation restricting location placement of HFSS products.

The analysis, conducted by researchers at the University of Leeds as part of the DIO Food project, will answer the following research questions:

(1) What happened to HFSS product sales after introduction of the policy?

(2) What happened to the retail product portfolios after introduction of the policy?

(3) Were impacts of the HFSS legislation equitable across different sociodemographic groups across the country?

(4) Has the HFSS legislation led to healthier overall purchasing using Eatwell guide as a metric?

These questions will be answered using store level sales data, supplemented by contextual information collected in interviews and surveys with the retailers and customers.

Read the protocol on Open Science Framework.

Prof Michelle Morris said: “We really are delighted to be working with these four major retailers to evaluate such a significant policy and look forward to sharing findings once available”

Utilising CDRC Products

The sales data provided by the retailers will be for stores selected across deciles of our Priority Places for Food Index (developed in collaboration with Which? in 2022) to allow us to investigate whether the legislation has impacted different communities equally.

The researchers will analyse the impacts of the implementation from a health and sustainability perspective, using the Eatwell Guide.

The team will also use innovative data products created by CDRC’s Dr Fran Pontin (Eatwell algorithm) and Dr Victoria Jenneson (Nutrient Profile Model Calculator) in their analysis, providing insight that cannot be found elsewhere.

Building on previous real-life behaviour change trials

This research is part of a broader UKRI Transforming UK Food Systems academic collaboration, led by Professor Alex Johnstone at the University of Aberdeen, the Diet and Health Inequalities (DIO food) project.

The work package 6 partnership builds upon the University of Leeds ongoing programme of real-life behaviour change trials with IGD to build evidence on what works, and doesn’t, to shift consumers to healthier and more sustainable diets.

Dr Victoria Jenneson said “Applying our CDRC data products at scale will offer a unique perspective on the nuances of the legislation, such as equity. We are excited to uncover impacts on HFSS sales, and on changes to product portfolios too.”

We are looking forward to learning more from this interdisciplinary, cross sector team of Prof Michelle Morris and Dr Victoria Jenneson from the School of Food Science and Nutrition and Dr Alison Fildes and Dr Alice Kininmonth from the School of Psychology at University of Leeds alongside ASDA, Morrisons, Sainsbury’s and Tesco, IGD and wider DIO Food team.

*Kantar Worldpanel Grocery Market Share as of 17/04/24

This research is funded through the Transforming the UK Food System for Healthy People and a Healthy Environment SPF Programme, delivered by UKRI, in partnership with the Global Food Security Programme, BBSRC, ESRC, MRC, NERC, Defra, DHSC, OHID, Innovate UK and FSA. Grant award BB/W018021/1.